How Sony could take over the world - Technology Evangelist

Microsoft?��Ǩ�Ѣs Xbox 360 and Sony?��Ǩ�Ѣs Playstation 3 are about more than just games. A lot more. I just recently got my Xbox 360 and have been playing around with some fun stuff involving media downloads. This whole experience makes me think about the future of television.

I?��Ǩ�Ѣm watching my Xbox 360 download HDTV trailers to my hard drive attached to the gaming console. From here I?��Ǩ�Ѣm able to watch these HDTV videos on my 720p HDTV screen all via the Xbox 360. I didn?��Ǩ�Ѣt insert a disc or go to any web page, the content was part of a video trailer feed (RSS maybe) that just listed all of my trailer options. How cool is that? The Playstation 3 will be able to do the same thing, maybe even in 1080p.

The BluRay and HD-DVD wars will be obsolete almost as soon as they begin. Why would I want to go to the store, sift through a series of round discs, fight the crowds and pay $25.00 per disc to get HDTV content when I can just download it directly to my Xbox 360 or Playstation 3? Even if I have to pay to watch the movies, I would much prefer be able to download them rather than have a physical collection of discs.

I don?��Ǩ�Ѣt think many people question that we are going to see downloadable HD content, that?��Ǩ�Ѣs a given. How many people have thought of how we?��Ǩ�Ѣre going to get this content onto our HDTV screens? That?��Ǩ�Ѣs the big question. How many consumers are really willing to set a loud, buggy, ugly computer in their living room? Not many. I believe that the way we?��Ǩ�Ѣre going to start getting our content is not through computers, not through cable, not over the air or even satellite?��Ǩ�� I believe we?��Ǩ�Ѣre going to get nearly all of our HDTV content through set-top boxes and gaming consoles. Based on that, who is the big winner in all of this? Sony.

Sony has the studios to back this distribution method up. Sony owns a LOT of content that they can easily make available to willing users. Sony also has their location-free devices (which includes their PSP) allowing you to view your content on any device. The Playstation 3 could be an extension of Location Free, allowing you to download HDTV content directly to the console, play that content on your HDTV, a wireless LCD, your PSP or computer. No one else has all of the pieces like Sony does: content, distribution, and hardware. Microsoft simply does not have the media contacts that Sony has, and as such the Xbox 360 will probably have a hard time breaking from being more than just a glorified gaming console.

There are two potential competitors that Sony would face in the new HDTV arena: Cisco and Apple. Cisco recently acquired Scientific Atlanta, one of the top set-top producers in the US. Cisco now has all of the tools necessary to create on-demand HDTV content for millions of users. Unfortunately Cisco lacks the content to place on these boxes. I think everyone can see where Apple may go with iTunes. Look at the current MiniMac with FrontRow and you can already see the future starting to shape up. The problem is that I really believe consumers don?��Ǩ�Ѣt want a computer hooked to their TV and that the future is in dedicated devices?��Ǩ�� And that really leaves the Playstation 3.

This article is mostly speculation, but as I watch my 720p HDTV movie trailer, listen to my music collection, view my vacation photos all on my ?��Ǩ?�gaming console?��Ǩ�� I see a very clear path laid out in front of Sony. Now the question is, will Sony take the jump and move to downloadable content before they even release BluRay, or are we going to be forced to wait as so Sony can get some money from BluRay first, before offering us the real deal. Thoughts?

The answer is sadly that Sony will release multitudes of new movie on BluRay and then a few years down the line, will suddenly release even better quality versions with all new commentary tracks and special features for download. Why is this, because Sony is smart and they know that many people will buy the content twice. it has been proven time and again that consumers are wiling to pay for content again, but only if it is thru a new medium. When CD's came out everyone had to buy their old favorites on CD (which is what propped up the music industry for years), people are still converting their movie collections over to DVD. People will switch over their video collections to BluRay and then they will switch over to Downloadable content. Sony will give consumers what they have been screaming for years with their BluRay discs and then when consumers wake up and understand the power of Downloadable HD content they will give the consumers their wants again, and possibly have even more content to give them thru buy-outs of other Movie studios. Everyone is worried about why the box offices are down for movies, when the Hollywood execs really don't care, because they know that the money is not in box offices anymore, it is in the selling of the movie after the movie gets released on DVD, and the more times they can make that sale the better the bottom line is for them.

One thing this author forgot to mention is microsofts dealings with IPTV, direct tv, and MTV. Try taking a look around the web and you might get a better idea as to what they're up to with with this whole media war.

No matter which company wins this race, I think you have hit the nail on the head here, Ben. I have done similar experiments with my new 40 inch Bravia LCD by playing an HD QuickTime trailer off my Powerbook. In just 2 minutes of download time I can be watching an HD trailer and it looks darn good! Much better than what my Tivo or even a DVD can output on the same display. I have no doubt that Apple is headed the same direction as SONY and Microsoft, with iTunes and their new Intel hardwaere. Of course some people are going to need discs if they don't want to mess with a media center PC, but those Blu-ray discs are simply "ROM" discs with an MPEG 4 file on them. Broadband delivery of that same file straight into a "box" of some kind, is the way this will all go, IMO. Just think of how that will change the landscape for television, movies, music, video rentals, etc! It's going to be very interesting to watch how it all unfolds here in the next few years.

Most likely these devices will be released with on-board hard drives to download/store content - once gain localizing the content on that one box which has to act as a server to distribute the content on to other tv's etc in the house.

You 'buy' the content - but DONT really download the entire thing - you stream it... but since the content does exist on a server you can download and burn it or store it elsewhere if you like - but now, suddenly your content is accessable anywhere - once wireless bandwidth becomes mainstream, you will no longer need PS2's or video ipods with high storage capacities - all you need is bandwidth and you have access to your ENTIRE collection of music, videos and applications on the go.

now, you have low cost 'stream and play' devices but still able to listen / watch your entire 1TB audio video collection...

I know this is not a new idea - but the perfect execution still doesnt exist so far... a streamlined interface and user experience is still not there - but we are heading there i think - and i put my money on Apple to do it right... just my $0.02.

Comments

1. Posted by: Roald Marth on February 17, 2006 8:40 AM:

It is interesting to me that you bought, installed and tested a Microsoft Xbox and concluded that Sony would win! The irony of this testing scenario is "funny". But I am not so sure, Sony tends to be slower than most of their competitors. Slow will likely not win in this battle for the living room. Apple/Disney could lead. And I would not so quickly count Microsoft out of the game, they can buy a content company if needed to jumpstart their future xBox2 HD initiative. They could also lower the price of xBox2 HD's to FREE if need be to get the viewers. The game of course is "Download and Play" content, but the winners from a company persective are difficult if not impossible to forcast (it could be Google, or a new name) but what is clear is Content Creators/Owners and Consumers will be the truest winners. The inbetween will fight it out to the death in one of the greatest fights of all time, the fight for control of the living room (maybe Intel?, Dell, Comcast) It will be fun to watch! Ro

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