Smackfoo breaks down an Ebay bidding strategy based on auto-refreshing an auction during the final countdown to decide how much to bid and when:
smackfoo ?¢‚Ǩ¬? chronology ?¢‚Ǩ¬? geek 101 - eBay sniping
"Here?¢‚Ǩ‚Ñ¢s my pet hate. eBay sniping by an automated process. Part of the eBay experience is the excitement that builds during the auction.. those final last minutes when the heart starts to pump just that little bit harder, the pupils of one?¢‚Ǩ‚Ñ¢s eyes dilate.. you know the feeling - you?¢‚Ǩ‚Ñ¢re about to score ?¢‚Ǩ?ìstuff?¢‚Ǩ¬ù and it?¢‚Ǩ‚Ñ¢s gonna be a fair trade. Your moments away from scoring kit at a great price and bam some automated java or perl scripted bot zips in 60 or so seconds before auction end and scores a bargain before you can react.
Well, not any more my friends, you see I?¢‚Ǩ‚Ñ¢ve found a solution and it doesn?¢‚Ǩ‚Ñ¢t involve a hit to the hip pocket for some over-hyped and hyperactive perl script to do your work for you."
This is certainly an interesting use of that extension. The key to winning on Ebay,
and not overpaying, is to:
1. Wait until the last minute to bid so you don't start a bidding war, driving up the price.
2. Decide how much you are willing to pay for an item BEFORE you start bidding.
3. Remember that Ebay uses Bid Increments.
With that in mind, hitting refresh shouldn't really make much of a difference since it has no effect on the above three factors.
Here's an example:
Say you're bidding on a Mac Mini. The one I've linked to is currently going for $255 with 22 bids.
Let's assume you're willing to pay $280 for this auction.
The auction ends at Sep-26-06 14:54:59 PDT, so the best time to bid is not now, but in the few seconds before the auction ends (Rule #1).
You've decided how much you're willing to pay ($280) so when it's time to bid, how much should you bid?
a. $260
b. $275
c. $280
The correct answer is "c" or $280. But what if you could get it for less than $280? Here's the kicker: if the highest bidder's highest bid is only $255, you'll actually win with a $260 winning price! Why? Because Ebay auto-increments bids. Between $250 and $499.99, the auto-increment level is $5, so you're $280 bid will simply auto-increment you to $5 beyond the current bidder's highest bid.
However, it's worth noting that the current $255 bidder could actually have a bid of $285 in place. If so, you'll be immediately outbid by that when you slam in your $280. When that happens, you could rebid at a higher price, but that would be ignoring Rule #2. Don't let you emotions get the best of you at the end of an auction unless you're more interested in winning at any price than getting a good deal. Of course, if that's your position, just slam in a ridiculously high bid to guarantee the win.
1. Posted by: Brendan on September 26, 2006 10:54 PM:
Ed,
Nice article.
When you bid on an item, ideally the bid should be realistic. However unless you really sit down, analyse the pricing and have an extremely good idea of what an item's actual value is, most folks will tend to bid conservatively rather than aggressively.
If the difference is a few dollars between a win and a loss, particularly for a rarer item, then often I'll make that call nearer sale time.
Sniping is based on a fixed value as the upper limit, just as normal bidding is.. the key point is that one can 'out play' the snipers in the closing moments, simply by having the 'latest' data in front of you at all times.
One can also snap up an absolute bargain as well - because the bids occur in the last few minutes, it keeps the inevitable bidding war from happening. It's not at all uncommon to see bidding occur well before sales end simply due to folks pushing up the price by bidding against you with 'feeler' bids'.
The 'feeler bid' is the result of folks attempting to see how much they can bid within their price range, without necessarily intending to buy. The equivalent of tyre kicking.
Case in point I picked up a spare power supply recently, street value somewhere cira $150. I paid $1.15 as the final bid was placed 15 seconds before close.
Having said that having a firm upper limit is always advisable, as the 'heat-of-the-moment' can result in a massive bidding war and an unpleasant result.
Ultimately my article was sharing a technique I had found that provided great results when dealing with items that one particularly wants.. without lining the pockets of ebay sniper merchants in the process. :)