Better Living Through Technology: a blog dedicated to emerging
technology trends in hardware, software, webware, marketing and beyond
 
 
 



« Changing Who Can Blog Your Flickr Photos | Main | Daytipper Community Tip Sharing Site Review »

2006 Technology Predictions followup
Benjamin J. Higginbotham
Last January I posted my 2006 predictions. I thought it would be fun to take a peek and see how well I did this last year. Lets see here...

"1 - A new super-virus will be released on the Internet that will wreak havoc on Windows based systems. This virus will be bad enough to bring entire legs of the Internet to a crawl. We're not talking about your average every-day virus, we're talking about a massive virus the likes of which we have never seen and will cost corporate America billions."
Nope. Didn't happen. While there were many viruses released in 2006, nothing along the lines of a Nimda or Code Red came out. There were a couple of scares here and there, but it was a fairly calm year on the sea of the Internet. I would have to say that this prediction was wrong.

"2 - BluRay and HD DVDs will finally hit the market with much fanfare, but at a very steep price. While the early adopters will all grab on to a format, most consumers will ignore this until there is more HD content available."
I think I got this one right. At $500 to $1,500 for a blue laser based HD player, the prices are still too steep for the general consumer and the war is too confusing. It will probably be a while before we see mass adoption of either of these formats.

"3 - Windows Vista will actually be released."
I was right and wrong on this one. Vista has reached RTM and it is possible to get a "final" copy of Vista on MSDN; however, general consumers can't get their hands on it. Since it's not actually available to the mass market, I'm going to have to say I was wrong on this one. I really thought that Microsoft was going to get Vista to market in 2006 and they didn't.

"4 - Apple will release a HDTV living room solution. Maybe based on iTunes, maybe not, this system will allow users to download HDTV shows and movies legally and play them on their Macintosh via their Front Row application. Just plug your Intel based Mac Mini into a HDTV, and download away. While iTunes allows you to download videos today, they are only 320x240, we're talking 1080i or 720p+ quality here."
I'm not sure what to make of this. Apple did increase the quality of the iTunes Store video downloads to about 480p. This is not HD resolution but it scales very nicely. I can plug a MacMini into an HDTV and download 720p or 1080p content from TE and play it on the screen, but not shows or movies. Apple also announced the codenamed iTV product but has yet to release it. I think the fundemental idea that Apple would enter the living room didn't happen that much, but they are moving to HDesq video downloads. So while close, I would say I was about a year too early on this one.

"5 - Free WiFi hotspots will start cropping up everywhere as retail owners find this is an easy way to get repeat business."
It happened in Minneapolis and a couple areas in California. I think this is going slowly, but I am starting to see a lot more WiFi hotspots. This item didn't make the news too much, but I do believe it came true.

"6 - To compete with Windows Mobile 5, Palm will release an all new Treo, above and beyond the Treo 700w, based on a Linux version of the Palm OS. This will be a completely new system that will give Windows Mobile a run for its money; however, the momentum behind Windows Mobile 5 will continue to climb."
HA! Silly me thinking that Access and Palm could get along enough to make this happen. We did see the Treo 680 which is based on an OLDER version of Palm OS with a new home screen, but that's about it. Yawn. It's unfortunate that I was wrong on this, it seems to me Palm is slowly loosing it grasp on innovation.

"7 - Intel will produce a 64 bit chip that actually beats the x86 AMD systems in price, performance and power (as in lower power consumption). I know, it's a long shot, but you never know."
Holy cow I was right! AMD fanboys aside, the Core 2 Duo line kicks butt and isn't nearly as powr hungry as older Intel products. I would say that not only did this come true, AMD is playing catchup for the first time in years.

"8 - A VoIP war will be raged between Microsoft, eBay/Skype, Google/AOL, and the traditional VoIP providers such as Vonage. We will see a lot of innovative features, the least of which is video. Expect to start getting WebEx type functionality in these applications."
Once again I was a year too early. It's Apple's iChat program in 10.5 that will be taking VoIP to the next level. I was banking on SightSpeed or Gizmo Project, but both of these projects let me down in the innovation category. I guess we'll all just follow Apple's lead as usual.

"9 - Applications will continue to move to the web, try Writely, Bloglines and Yahoo Mail and they will become more integrated - think OnlineOffice - so that users can access their data from their Handhelds, Tabnotes, and Media Center PC's: The web will fundamentally disrupt every industry, while we have heard this before, it will truly happen in Web 2.0."
This is happening and ongoing. Google released Google Docs and Spreadsheets and Microsoft started to release their Live platform. I got this one right, but it will be a multi-year process, so it's not complete yet.

"10 - After Technology Evangelist offers HDTV coverage of CES, the traffic to this site will become so large that we will be forced to upgrade to a new pimped out XServe from Apple. Maybe even two clustered together".
Yes and no. What we really ended up doing is moving first to 1and1.com, but after they had an extended outage recently with no good explanation (or apology) we moved to Media Temple's Grid network which has been serving us well so far. So yes, we moved to a grid network, no it's not on an Apple XServe cluster... yet...

How did this year shap up for you? Were your expectations and predictions on mark? What do you expect for 2007?




TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.technologyevangelist.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.fcgi/624

Comments

1. Posted by: Peter Csathy on December 29, 2006 7:08 PM:

Regarding innovation leadership in the "VoIP" space, I was surprised to find you noting that SightSpeed let you down in 2006. Virtually all other reviewers -- PC Magazine, PC World, Frost & Sullivan, IDC (to name a few) -- identified SightSpeed as being THE innovators (and overall "best") in this space. First, we once again led the pack in terms of overall quality -- out-innovating with video, but also adding full-service voice and IM. Next, we added powerful and easy-to-use video creation and publishing tools. Then, we added click-to-call full web video calling functionality (a powerful addition to add the full experience without the need for a download). However, rest assured, we want to make you a believer as well and intend to out-innovate all others once again in 2007, including Apple (iChat, of course, is not cross-platform whereas SightSpeed has been cross-platform for years). Look for SightSpeed 6.0 -- a major point release that will be exciting -- in early Q1 2007. We have no intention of following anyone's lead -- including Apple's -- as that has never been the way we have approached our business.




2. Posted by: Benjamin J. Higginbotham on December 30, 2006 4:58 PM:

Let me start by saying that I think SightSpeed is one of the hidden gems of the VVoIP world. However, in 2006 I saw a lot of rehashing of 2005 technology with free services stacked on top. I would not call this innovation. Here's a little list of what I would like to see in a VVoIP provider:

  • Call transferring. I would like to be able to take an incoming call from VoIP, VVoIP or PSTN and transfer it to another user. Being able to transfer audio to an outbound PSTN would be cool, but what I really want to be able to do is transfer the whole thing to another user on the network.
  • Remote desktop support. I would like to be able to share my desktop or view a shared desktop for either a business meeting or remote support. If this were a support call it would be one-on-one with video and audio, if it were a business meeting it would be one-to-many and hopefully still with video and audio. Being able to pass control among members would be cool too.
  • Remote presentation support. Basically the same as above but also with the ability to download slides, have a virtual laser pointer, and fast enough to be able to see those annoying PowerPoint effects that everyone likes to use.
  • Automated attendant. Having a single PSTN number or VVoIP user that someone could call, hit a couple of buttons then find the user they are looking for (also transferring the call) would be powerful for small to medium sized businesses.
  • Multiple accounts. The application would be powerful enough to host the entire phone system for a small/medium sized business but also easy enough to use at home. I would like to be able to use the application in both places, but be able to shut off the work number at night, or possibly not depending on the user. This would require two independent accounts to be linked to the same running application I believe.
  • Well done SIP support and massive third party support with fully documented SDKs and APIs.
  • The ability to embed a client free, cross-platform application (probably flash based) into a web site, such as my profile page. See Wengo Visio for an example of this.
  • Plugins for most major e-mail clients to show user status (online/offline/busy) directly in the client. Outlook, Outlook Express, Mail.app and Thunderbird to name a few. Direct calling from this would be nice too.

These are just a few of the ideas I have had. Some of these are available on some platforms, as far as I know the whole list can't be found on any service. These things seem like they are pretty basic to me, yet I don't see any VVoIP provider making any effort to make them happen. If SightSpeed implements even a few of these features, most notably the ability to move calls around and basic small/medium business rules, then I'll sing their praises from the hilltops!

-Benjamin




Post a comment

Name:


Email Address:


URL:
Remember personal info?

Comments:

HTML Tags you can use in your posts:
<b>Bold</b> = Bold
<i>Italicized</i> = Italicized
<a href="http://www.othersite.com">Link to Other Site</a> = Link to Other Site


Please keep comments on-topic. Contact authors or other commenters
directly for off-topic conversations.

Notify me of future comments via e-mail



Technology Evangelist Digest - Free Newsletter
Sign up for the free Technology Evangelist Digest to receive daily updates, editorials, and practical advice on emerging technology trends in hardware, software, webware, marketing and beyond.

Technology Evangelist Digest will keep you up to date on the technology trends that will help make you more productive and efficient both in business and your personal life.

Let's face it: If you made it to this line, you must have found something valuable on this page, right? Think about how cool it would be to have something free and interesting to read every day from Technology Evangelist by signing up today.

1. Fill in your email below,
2. Then click on the confirmation email you receive.
3. That's it. Your first Technology Evangelist Digest will arrive within 24 hours.




Previous Entries:


Tag Cloud