The year isn't quite over yet, but I think we're far enough along to score the 2007 tech predictions I made back in January.
A lot has happened in the last year on the web. More applications have moved to the web, and applications that were already on the web have become richer. Also, new forms of web based advertising have taken hold. Of course, that's easy to say once it's happened. Is that what I said back at the start of the year?
3. MySpace.com's page views in Dec 2006 will be the same or smaller in Dec 2007.
Close. I think this was my boldest prediction. MySpace was on a roll, but I got the feeling that it may be peaking. Looks like that peak came at the end of teh school year. A January 2007 vs 2008 time frame probably would have hit this. 5 points.
4. YouTube will add revenue sharing with video publishers.
Correct! This finally happened in May. I have a feeling that YouTube would say that this has been somewhat underwhelming to date, but at least they're trying things. They did take this further just this week. 10 points.
5. Yahoo will acquire Blip.tv as to move them into revenue sharing with video publishers.
Incorrect. Yahoo didn't buy blip.tv and frankly, didn't do much to move forward with video in 2007. 0 Points.
6. Google will launch a client based Email / RSS Reader.
Correct. Google launched Gears in May, which allows for offline RSS reading. It doesn't support offline email reading yet, but they've already stated that it will. 10 points.
7. MySpace and Facebook will launch mobile versions so students can get around blocked access at school.
9. Google Radio will have a restricted launch after securing ad space in major cities.
Correct. In fact, they've gone beyond that, opening things up to all advertisers - at least in the USA where they have inventory available. 10 points.
10. A US presidential candidate will be forced to drop out of the race based on the contents of a video published to YouTube.
Wrong. 0 Points.
I thought this ad from Mike Huckabee might do the trick, but I underestimated the power of Chuck Norris. I'll never make that mistake again:
Overall, I'm giving myself a 7 out of 10 with 1/2 credit on my MySpace flattening prediction. If you think I've graded myself unfairly, let me know if the comments.
For the ones I got wrong, should I let them ride another year? Or, do you think they still have a shot in the last 3 weeks of 2007?
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Comments
1. Posted by: Galen on December 12, 2007 12:50 PM:
That's a pretty fantastic success rate, although a few were sort of gimmes (ads on youtube). MySpace makes up for them though. What's next year?
2. Posted by: Adam Schroeder on December 12, 2007 1:01 PM:
Never, I repeat NEVER, underestimate the power of Chuck Norris. Even if it seems that he has completely lost his mind. Or maybe his wife has just mastered the art of mind-control. So I guess what I mean is never underestimate the power of Chuck Norris, unless you are estimating the power of his wife to control his mind. haha
3. Posted by: Ed Kohler on December 12, 2007 4:37 PM:
Galen, I'm going to have to go on a retreat to get my mind in the right place for some 2008 predictions. I'd love to see a post from you on real estate in 2008.
4. Posted by: King Steve on December 13, 2007 4:10 AM:
Nice job dude.
It's a shame that the mobile Myspace sucks though. Full of bugs. Plus if you have a black berry or Q you HAVE to use the mobile, even though you could just as easily use the normal web based one.
but note that, if one has an iPhone, one doesn't need those special mobile versions of MySpace or Facebook -- both sites look just the same there as on any computer
speaking of which: why no Apple prediction from you last year? what a glaring hole! don't come back from your retreat without one this year... :-)
1. Posted by: Galen on December 12, 2007 12:50 PM:
That's a pretty fantastic success rate, although a few were sort of gimmes (ads on youtube). MySpace makes up for them though. What's next year?