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Apple TV to replace BluRay and HD-DVD?
HD-DVD is nearly dead and it's quite possible that BluRay may soon see the same fate. At MacWorld San Francisco 2008 Steve Jobs announced the all new Apple TV Take 2 which now allows usage of the device without a computer. I can rent an HD movie, I can buy an HD movie and I can download HD Podcasts all from the comfort of my living room.
There are a few things holding back the Apple TV, namely quality. A BluRay disc can be encoded with 1080p h.264, uncompressed multi-channel audio and a 40Mbps data rate (48Mbps with audio). Compare that to Apple TV's h.264 up to 720p (or 1080i) at 5Mbps with AAC audio. That means that BluRay has the potential for 8x the video bitrate and much better audio. Keep in mind that this does not mean 8x the quality as a CODEC will see diminishing returns as the bitrate is pushed higher and higher, but even between 5Mbps and 10Mbps there's a pretty big difference.
Ease of use has a tendency to trump quality. A perfect example of this would be MP3s and MP3 players. Audio CDs have a much higher quality than an MP3 yet how many CD players do you see out there today vs iPods? While it is possible to put lossless audio on an iPod, how many people really, actually do that? Heck, just look at how many people still use the crummy default headphones that come with the iPod.
There are few people who will argue that the future of audio and video distribution is online. It's easier, cheaper and faster to simply push the data down the pipe rather than stamp out a round, shiny disc. The big question here is when. With Apple TV 2 it's become very, very easy to get HD movies, TV shows and Podcasts right on my HDTV. Think about that for a second. Unlike a BluRay player I can actually download nitch HD content that is interesting to me via my favorite Podcasts. No need to hook up a computer, no need to try and force my TiVO to give me access to the content I want (not just they content they say I want). It's all right there available at my fingertips.
Since Podcasters now have a new outlet to reach more viewers I think we'll see more and more Podcasts designed and compressed around the new Apple TV. These Podcasters will probably also buy the unit (if they haven't already) and start to evangelize it as an easy way to get their content on HDTVs. As more and more content becomes available on the Apple TV in the form of movies and TV shows we'll start to see more and more sales which will also push more and more Podcasters to use the device which will push more and more sales. It's a never ending cycle.
HD-DVD will die and go the way of BetaMax. BluRay will be around for a while as an elite platform for videophiles who want something better, and of course on the PS3. Apple TV 2 will start to gain traction but we'll really see a huge splash when Apple releases Apple TV 3 adding 1080p support and much higher bitrates. The future is downloadable HD media and while many companies have tried and failed, including Apple, this is the device that will change the world of HD as we know it.
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2. Posted by: Sebhelyesfarku on January 16, 2008 3:40 PM:
But it doesn't have the Apple logo on it and for dumbass Mactards facts don't matter anyways.
3. Posted by: Tom B on January 16, 2008 3:43 PM:
"Correct me if im wrong but isn't the PS3 capable of doing everything listed above?"
What do PS3's run these days?
4. Posted by: Benjamin Higginbotham on January 16, 2008 4:11 PM:
The PS3 can move content from a computer or if I know the URL I can manually download it, but it doesn't have any Podcasting features that I have found. It *does* have a BluRay drive which is nice. It's also 2x the price of an Apple TV and I can't get HD movie rentals on it unless I use a round, shiny disc. That's fine for now, but pretty clearly not the future of HD distribution.
5. Posted by: Alex on January 16, 2008 8:37 PM:
Downloadable quality content? In 3 years maybe. Need better compression and faster, more affordable broadband. Many people only have 768 kbps. That won't deliver even Apple TV 2's 5Mbps even close to fast enough.
6. Posted by: Benjamin Higginbotham on January 16, 2008 10:55 PM:
5Mbps is the maximum that Apple TV supports. Many of the Apple TV encoded videos on the Technology Evangelist site are encoded around 1Mbps to 2Mbps (it's quality dependent). While bandwidth is absolutely an issue, I know few who still only have 768 connections. Most of my friends have 8Mbps down, some have 20Mbps down. It all depends on the area and what is available.
According to the latest figures the average download speed in the US is around 1.9Mbps to 4.8Mbps depending on who you listen to: http://tinyurl.com/2yt3yu If this is the case, our video Podcasts should stream in real time or a wee bit faster and many others will as well. Even so, with a minimal amount of buffering it is still a progressive start.
That being said, the US is painfully behind and we need to get the speed of our Internet connections up to start supporting things like real-time video, video conferencing, and other bandwidth enabled applications. This will be one of the contributing factors to the success of Apple TV or a device like it. May be worthy of a post all on its own.
7. Posted by: woz on January 17, 2008 2:00 AM:
"Downloadable quality content?"
Ever visited a newsserver? Quality content is already here. Everybody knows it. It's quite like the Napster vs iTunes some time ago. iTunes made downloading legal. Apart from that, people actually PAY to get access to good newsservers. I for one would not mind paying a few bucks for a good quality movie via iTunes.
8. Posted by: Ian Kemmish on January 17, 2008 2:06 AM:
Ease of use is indeed the key. I live 45 miles from London, and yet I can get a train into London, buy a DVD and get the train home again in less time than it takes to download a movie.....
9. Posted by: johnson on January 17, 2008 6:19 AM:
You people that think downloading hd is the future are retards! there is not enough people on high speed internet to justify this, not to mention the time it takes to download something in hd. people would rather have the "physical" disc anyway instead of "paying" everytime they want to re-watch it! the same holds true for home theatre inthusiasts! the futre is blu or red!!!
10. Posted by: woz on January 17, 2008 6:31 AM:
@ "johnson" High Def is not required. I download DVD quality. Sure, I've only got a 6 Mb/s DSL line but it's good enough for me. I search for the film in the morning and when I come home, it's waiting on my MacMini for me...
You have one point: I don't want to pay twice to see the same movie. THAT is a DRM problem. If the industry doesn't fix this people will download illegally and without the DRM...
11. Posted by: The_Omega_Man on January 17, 2008 1:29 PM:
What makes you say that HD DVD will die! It seems to me that from a Cost versus performance standpoint, HD DVD would be better able to give Apple some competition for HDM distribution and portability.
All of the HD DVD is dead crap is just that, CRAP! HD on Optical Media will be dead before HD DVD or Blu-Ray will be declared dead by their respective parents. But Two things need to happened before then. a) broadband speeds needs to increase EVERYWHERE and b) the needs to be a standardized and economical way to make the HD content portable.
12. Posted by: It`s about time! on January 17, 2008 2:21 PM:
@ the omega man
Here is your proof that hd dvd is "dead"! dont try to make an excuse like toshita!! just accept it and move on, to downloading or blu ray for hd!
13. Posted by: fg on January 25, 2008 10:05 AM:
cox cable has home cable service stable and fast enough to handle any download apple tv can toss at it and a very good price . premeium service 6-18 mbs 1-2 mbs up stream , teir 2 fastest home service 10-20 mbs down upto 2 mbs up . so it's very easy to see this can take off very quickly if they market it right . and cox is nation wide in the USA .
14. Posted by: Realist on February 10, 2008 4:18 AM:
There is at least two reasons why iTunes rentals is not threatening Blu-Ray. First, People like to own things. I mean has any rental scheme ever hindered DVD or any other media sales?! Secondly, you still need some convenient media store digital data and DVD isn't going to cut it. Blu-Ray has hundreds of gigabytes potential.
iTunes HD rentals will be the privilege of those few with fast net access. With data rate 2-5Mbs you would need at least 4-10Mbs net connection (lets not forget that data is transfered over ethernet and over TCP/IP).
I think it is likely going to be a great service, when in some day it reaches Europe. Still I don't see how it would compete against Blu-Ray?! Sure might not buy crappy Hollywood pictures from discount bin as often as now, but still people need some media to hold those good films.
And lets not forget people with HD camcorders. You can put about 15mins of BD video in DVD, but hardly any weddings are that short...
15. Posted by: Dave on April 16, 2009 6:42 PM:
After trying Blu Ray, I decided to go the Apple TV route. Why? My second PS3 lasted only 6 months and it's my 7th ever PS3 in 12 years of using them
It's makes French electronics look reliable my luck with Playstations!
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1. Posted by: LogicPTK on January 16, 2008 2:59 PM:
Correct me if im wrong but isn't the PS3 capable of doing everything listed above?
e.g. streaming and downloading HD content (although not yet available) and also plays BluRay.