Did anything happen technology-wise in 2008? I made 10 predictions at the start of the year. Let's see how I did:
1. Netflix will deliver more content digitally than via mail in December 2008.
Hmm, I can find stats that verify this. However, Netflix has come out with their own streaming box, enabled streaming on Tivo, multiple other devices, enabled streaming for the Mac, and has made unlimited streaming available on almost all accounts (I get unlimited streaming for under $10/mo). While the paths may or may not have crossed yet, it's clear that they will if they haven't already.
2. Google will enable video-specific advertising for YouTube videos.
Yep.
3. Apple will drop Apple TV for the Mac Mini and a Mini will be available for $499.
Wrong and Wrong. Apple TV lives on and the Mac Mini starts at $599. The mini remains a better choice, in my opinion.
4. A usable wireless keyboard with touch pad will make couch surfing on a TV fun.
Yep. Although it hasn't received as much uptake as I would have imagined.
5. Google Docs will add "export as .ppt" making the Presentations application awesome.
Yep. I use it every week.
6. Yahoo will buy Zoho and build a business suite around that and Zimbra.
Nope. I didn't see the train wreck that was Yahoo in 2008 coming.
7. A team of striking writers with non-Hollywood backing will create an online show that blows away what we've seen to date.
Nope. FunnyOrDie is the closest I've seen, but it's not putting out enough volume of consistently great stuff to make this a yes.
8. The biggest news stories of the 2008 US presidential election will consistently break on blogs, Twitter, and YouTube rather than mainstream media sites.
Hard to measure, although a lot of information regarding Sarah Palin popped up on blogs. There's no question that blogs, Twitter, and YouTube played a big role in the election. Especially through content that was created by people other than the campaigns.
9. The biggest trend in YouTube videos will be how-to dance steps for popular songs. It will start to influence wedding song requests.
The how-to thing is happening, but isn't as big as I would have expected at this point. Tribute dance videos, such as the 1,810 "Put a Ring On It" videos uploaded to date have been a bigger growth industry for YouTube.
10. The Wall Street Journal's online edition will go free well before the November election. Influence will trump revenue short-term.
Surprisingly, this did not happen. But I believe the WSJ was less influential than it otherwise would have been because they didn't go free.
Not my best performance. Depending on how you judge it, I was at around 50% this year.
1. Posted by: Davis Freeberg on January 1, 2009 9:19 AM:
Netflix has been reluctant to share stats on their movie streaming service, but I would argue that they aren't even close to delivering the same number of films digitally as they do DVD. Currently they ship approximately 2 million DVDs per day and while I'm sure that their streaming service has been a success, I highly doubt that they are delivering a half a billion movies per year electronically. At some point this may end up happening, but when you consider that they are still losing money on digital delivery (and making money on DVD rentals), I'd argue that it's going to take a lot longer then most expectations.